He has gotten a bit stronger every day this week. That's unusual during an opponent's convention. The current day shows him with a 7-point lead.
538's now cast shows Trump with a 53% chance of winning if the election were held today.
Thursday, July 28, 2016
The USC / LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows Trump gaining during DNC
The USC / LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows Trump gaining during DNC
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Rasmussen tracking survey showed Hillary Clinton with a
ReplyDelete1% lead with most of their surveying done after Tuesday night.
It's a mistake to read too much into one poll or one firm.
Of course you are correct, but (1) this is the first poll that shows Trump with a sizable lead; (2) he improved every day during the DNC, which has to be disturbing for the opposition; (3) just about a month ago, 538's "now cast" was showing Hillary with about a 75% chance of winning.
ReplyDeleteIn the USC/LA Times survey, Hillary did finally cut the lead to 6.1 points yesterday, so there is finally a little convention bump there. (It would be more than one point, because their daily number is a 5-day rolling average.)
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