Sunday, February 22, 2004

Here is the full "Pentagon report" on climate change.
  • As I suspected, the key sentences ignored by the Guardian/Observer are as follows: "Rather than predicting how climate change will happen, our intent is to dramatize the impact climate change could have on society if we are unprepared for it." and "In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago." In other words, it is a what-if scenario based what would happen to a world of six or seven billion people if certain past geological events repeat themselves. To see how extreme the scenario is, read this sentence, "In 2007, a particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making a few key coastal cities such as The Hague unlivable."
  • It is also important to note that the report is NOT talking about climate changes caused by or capable of being modified by human activity. It is about possible human responses to recurring and probably inevitable geological events which have always occured throughout planetary history, albeit most dramatically before the era of humans, and will inevitably occur again. The key sentence here is, "We should prepare for the inevitable effects of abrupt climate change – which will likely come regardless of human activity." In essence, it asks us to think about how to deal with the inevitable cyclical climate changes that have happened throughout the world's history, becuse they will happen again sooner or later, maybe sooner. "With at least eight abrupt climate change events documented in the geological record, it seems that the questions to ask are: When will this happen? What will the impacts be? And, how can we best prepare for it? Rather than: Will this really happen?"

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