Sunday, October 31, 2004

Mostly tricks for Bush, treats for Kerry. Electoral-Vote.com redid their map and reversed yesterday's Bush margin of 280-243 to today's Kerry margin of 283-246!!. Their map changed significantly today as a result of incorporating new polls in battleground states. The highlights: Nevada from Bush to undecided, New Mexico from Bush to Kerry, New Hampshire from Kerry to undecided, Michigan from Bush to Kerry, New Jersey from undecided to Kerry, Iowa from Bush to Kerry. Most of these changes are based on a shift from one statistically insignificant leads to another, but the most recent polls do show Kerry with leads greater than the margin of error in New Jersey and Wisconsin, while showing Bush with a lead greater than the margin of error in New Mexico and coming very close to that level in Ohio.

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