- Cheney is popular with the GOP and was a strength on the ticket last year.
- Running Cheney last year didn't give the press or the Dems a chance to blast the alternative candidate.
- Having Cheney step down now allows Bush to name his hand-picked successor, the likely Presidential nominee in 2008. (Would not be necessary if Cheney would run, but he will not, or cannot.)
- The natural successor would be Jeb Bush, but GWB can't name his brother as VP without severe repercussions among mainstream voters.
- Naming Condi is the next best thing to Jeb. Her fierce loyalty assures a complete continuation of the Bush legacy, and a chance for Condi to pick Jeb as her VP in 2008 if they both agree. (Or maybe a deal has already been struck to do it the other way around - run Jeb in 2008 with Condi contuinuing as VP. We have no way of knowing that, since only three or four people would know about it, and they ain't talkin'!)
- Condi might just win in 2008, especially if paired with Jeb, no matter which of them holds the top spot. If nothing else, Condi might make a big dent in the traditional 95% of the black vote that goes to the Dems, and the presence of Jeb on the ticket would assure that they do not lose any conservatives.
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Rumor of the day: Dick Cheney likely will step down next year due to health reasons and be replaced by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Of course, I predicted that Cheney would run in 2004, then step down fairly soon after the election, but I did not see Condi coming. I suppose that is a pretty smart move, since
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