Sunday, June 26, 2005

There were no surprises in this weekend's box office. It was expected to be weak, and it was, with only minor shifts from film to film.
  • Batman held on to #1 despite a 45% drop from last weekend. The Perfect Man virtually dropped off the chart.
  • The total gross for the top dozen films was off 16% from last year, marking the 18th consecutive week to finish below the equivalent week in the previous year. That is the longest such slump in the history of modern record-keeping.
  • Analysts have made too much of that slump. The basic explanation is that last year was an unusual year. Fahrenheit 911 and The Passion of the Christ brought lots of non-moviegoers into the theaters. The revenues from those two films engorge last year's grosses, like a pig passing through a python. If one studies the revenue history over a longer period than a single year, the numbers make more sense. Last year's weekend was up $25 million over the previous year, attributable almost entirely to an opening weekend of $24 million for Fahrenheit 911. Here is this weekend compared to the equivalent weekend for the past two years.
    2003 - $113m

    2004 - $138m

    2005 - $116m

  • If you assume that the Fahrenheit 911 business was a windfall of incremental revenue from non-traditional moviegoers, and compare only the remaining films, then the numbers look completely sensible - like this
    2003 - $113m

    2004 - $114m

    2005 - $116m




TitleWarrior PredictionActualDiff%
Batman Begins28.826.7-7
Bewitched23.320.2-13
Mr. and Mrs. Smith15.316.79
Herbie14.512.8-12
Land of the Dead8.810.216
Madagascar77.34
Sith5.76.311
Longest Yard4.95.512
Shark Boy3.83.4-11
Perfect Man3.12.5-19

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