Other Crap

The Weekend Warrior's box office predictions for the week.

• The top 12 did $147.4m in 2003, and $138.9 in 2004. The general trend has been about 5% above 2003 (2004 was crazy and unpredictable, and useless for modeling), so a reasonable expectation for the Top 12 would be $154-$155, which is consistent with last week's $155.6. Weekend Warrior is calling for $141.2 million for the top 10, which would be about $146 for the Top 12, which seems about ten million light to me.
• His forecasts for the carry-overs are all reasonable, so my guess is that he may be about $10 million low on the new releases.
• There are essentially five new releases this week. The Island and Bad New Bears will be debuting on about 3000 screens each. The new Rob Zombie flick will be on about 1500 screens. Hustle and Flow will clear 1000, and that Penguin thing will expand to 500 and hit many markets for the first time.
• I would guess that the penguin thing will make the Top 10. It was #12 last week, and will be in four times as many theaters. Word of mouth is not just good, but downright gushing!