Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Reader question: what about Johjima for AL rookie of the year?

Well, he would be my runaway choice if they separated ROTY into two awards, one for pitchers and one for position players. In fact, he's just about the only possibility.


But you can't compare him to the three pitchers. Johjima hit .290, but actually has the offense of a much weaker hitter - thanks to a .332 OBP. (That's actually below average. The league average is .339.) Guy never takes a walk. Mike Napoli of the Angels hit only .228 - but got on base FAR more than Johjima (.360 vs .332) The stat which most accurately parallels true offensive value is OPS. Johjima's OPS was .783, compared to a league average of .776. Meh.



In all fairness, it should be pointed out that Safeco Field is a place where offense goes to die, so Johjima is a much stronger hitter than his raw stats indicate. On the road he had the same lousy on-base percentage (.333 versus .331), because his batting eye is just as poor everywhere, but he slugged .119 better!!! His slugging average was .504 on the road, .385 at home. That's a mammoth difference. In the universe of catchers, that's roughly the difference between Johnny Bench and me. In fact, Bench's lifetime slugging avg was only .476! If you multiply Johjima's road stats times two, you have a season of .307, 24HR, 92RBI, which is very impressive for a catcher, even with the poor OBP.

Still, I just can't mention him in the same breath as the three pitchers, who were all major stars. There's Verlander. There's a closer with 35 saves and a 0.92 ERA. Or there's Liriano. Forget Rookie of the Year, Liriano would have been the Cy Young winner except for the injury. Word. Santana will win the Cy, I suppose. Compare their records. Liriano, pitching in identical conditions, has 'im beat in every category. Better winning percentage, better ERA, better K/9, and the same WHIP! If you look at the detailed stats, the story continues. Batters hit .216 against Santana. But they hit .205 against Liriano. Batters slugged a pathetic .360 against Santana, which seems really impressive until you see that they slugged a truly anemic .306 against Liriano!

I would place Johjima fourth in the balloting behind the three pitchers, or maybe ahead of Papelbon, if I were to give it more thought. I don't know whom I would vote for! It would have been Liriano if he had maintained that level without an injury, but given his limited action, the other two guys have equally strong cases.

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