Sunday, January 28, 2007

Helton tells paper he likely would OK deal to BoSox
The Red Sox employ lots of baseball analysts, so I can't believe they would make this trade.

1. Helton has a big long-term contract and is no longer capable of performing at that level. Even when he signed the contract, his numbers were artificially inflated by Coors. His lifetime average outside of Coors is below. 300.

2. Helton's performance has declined dramatically two years in a row, and declined still further last year after the all-star game!

Last year, Helton's performance outside of Coors was a .266 batting average, with 7 homers and 30 RBI - and that's in more than 300 plate appearances. So call it .266 with 14 homers and 60 RBI (with a .421 slugging average and an OPS under .800) if playing a full season in a neutral park. Unless there is some reason to expect a dramatic return to form (not so very likely at age 33 and without the Coors effect), that would make him just about the weakest-hitting first baseman in the game. Even with the Rockies picking up half of the contract, the Sox would still be stuck paying eight million a year for a weak-hitting first baseman. I'll bet they could do a lot more with that money.

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