Other Crap

Weekend Box Office Results for February 16-19, 2007

As mentioned yesterday, it was an incredible weekend, nearly 30% above last year, following a string of double-digit deficits! The 3-day total of $140 million is a decent weekend for mid-May, spectacular for February.

Looking at the chart below, you will see that the great success of the weekend is entirely attributable to just three of the seven films. The carry-overs performed as expected, as did the Tyler Perry film and the Hugh Grant musical. The three surprises were: (1) Ghost Rider - 34% above the prediction; (2)Bridge to Terabithia - 58% above; and (3) Breach - 95% above. Those three films accounted for an additional $28 million above the predictions, while the sum of the other group was actually a bit below the prediction.

The success of two of the three is easily explainable. There hasn't been anything good to take the kids to since Night at the Museum, and Terabithia is supposed to be an excellent movie. Breach also got great reviews and the trailer was good enough that I thought, "I have to see that."

The other was Ghost Rider. I can't tell you how it could have had such a big opening. The fanboys haven't had anything to sink their braces into this year and Ghost Rider, while crap, was at least their kind of crap! I guess. As I see it, it is the only film on the list targeted at the male 12-29 audience.

One reason for the week's success: if you look at the five new movies, you'll see that there is basically a new movie for every demographic group. Ghost Rider is for the hardcore young male audience. Terabithia is for the kiddies. Words and Music is for the date crowd. Daddy's Little Girls is for the black female audience. Breach is for the white guys who have outgrown Ghost Rider (And go to movies without dates. Sigh!)

There's good news and bad news about being in that last group. The bad news: no hanky-panky after the movie. The good news: no Hugh Grant during the movie. I like sex as much as the next guy (well, unless the next guy is Warren Beatty), but that's a decent trade-off!