Other Crap

Latest ARG Poll: Huckleberry hounds Giuliani - they are now co-leaders nationally

Lots of surprises: (1) Huckabee now tied for first (2) McCain now closer to Giuliani than he has ever been! (3)Thompson DOA (4)Romney up and down like a yo-yo (5)The Chosen One continues to climb steadily (6) Giuliani at all-time low.

What is it about Arkansas that gives its governors magical vote-gathering powers? Huckabee is now at 21%, same as Giuliani. Last month, Giuliani held a 25-6 lead!

Huckabee's support has come most directly from former Fred Thompson people. In the last three months, during which Huckabee increased from 4% to 21%, Thompson dropped from 23% to 6% - the exact same 17 points.

McCain, whom I wrote off in November after he declined steadily for eight months, actually managed a "surge" in December and picked up six points. That appears to have come from Romney and Giuliani, who lost five and four respectively. McCain is now only three behind Giuliani. That's the closest he has been.

The Chosen One continues to inch his way up the bottom of the polls, reaching his all-time high in December. He still has only 5%, but he's behind the disintegrating Fred Thompson by only a slim 6-5 margin. Compare that to September, when Thompson out-polled Paul 23-1!! That may not be as phenomenal as the rise of Huckabee, but it is quietly impressive.

Nobody can figure Romney out. In the past three months he's risen from 9 to 21, then dropped back to 16

Unlike the GOP candidates, the Dems have not moved the needle. Barack's alleged surge is confined to Iowa and the imagination of the media, and is not reflected in his national numbers. In September Hillary led Barack 39-21. It's now 41-22. That difference is just sampling variation. Edwards has also remained steady around 13, give or take two. (Sampling error is +-4 at 95% confidence.)