Other Crap

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

This is the best poll analysis site ever. They calculate the probability of the outcomes in each state based on the existing polls and their margins of error. Then they run every possible national iteration to establish a probability of each outcome in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Tremendous analysis.

This info would be especially useful if you were managing a campaign. Each candidate has a finite amount of money. How much money should they spend in each state? This site tries to approach that objectively. Both candidates should ignore New England, for example. There is nothing Obama could do to lose any of those states, possibly excepting New Hampshire. He could say "fuck the Patriots" in his next speech and take a dump on Ted Kennedy's head, and he'd still win those states in a landslide. Similarly, McCain could bring JACK Kennedy back from the dead to campaign for him, and he'd still lose those states. Any time and money he spends there is wasted.

On the other hand, the odds show that it is virtually impossible for McCain to win the election if he loses Ohio. He must carry that state, so he has to campaign hard there and spend any resources he might have considered using in New England.

The election outcome hinges on Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Michigan and Virginia, but there are still decisions that cannot be based entirely on computer projections. McCain has only a very, very slim chance to win in California, but should he blow off its massive total of 55 electoral votes? Tough call. High risk, high reward.