Lineup Analysis

Only for hardball geeks: Baseball Lineup Optimizer

Submitter wrote: "I didn't know about this website, but I could spend days here. Put in any nine players, their OBP and SLG, and it will give you the average runs scored per game, and the best lineups. I put in the all-time, peak value lineup (at least, from memory), and these were my guys: Bonds, Williams (DH), Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby, A-Rod, Piazza, Mantle,and Schmidt (not necessarily in that order), and used each player's career year as the input variable. I was shocked, SHOCKED (!), to discover that in the great majority of lineups, the Mick is batting ninth. He's like the last one picked! And if anyone wondered if OBP mattered, Bonds bats leadoff in the great majority of these lineups,even though he slugged .863."

Scoop's note: These sorts of optimizers are only useful when playing with computer models which will faithfully replicate the man's actual performance in a year. That doesn't mean they would work in reality, because the line-ups you choose would affect their performance, and that would in turn alter the optimal line-up.

Here's what I mean: according to my theory, the line-up itself would cause Bonds to have a higher SLUG and a lower OBP ... thus calling for the line-up to be changed after the new data is entered. Playing for the Giants, Bonds had an enormous OBP because of intentional and semi-intentional walks, but if you could really bring these guys back from the dead to play out the season, Bonds would receive no intentional walks and would not be pitched around with Ted Williams and Babe Ruth batting behind him. On the other hand, since pitchers would not be able to pitch around him, his slugging average would probably be even higher (Higher than .863???!!! Gotta love those steroids.)

But Williams, with a perfect batting eye and a stubborn refusal to acknowledge any pitch outside the strike zone under any circumstances, would probably still have the same OBP in just about any situation, so you would probably end up with Williams batting lead-off, despite his sluggish foot speed.