MLB Baseball Pitching Statistics and League Leaders - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Thoughts on the NL Cy Young Award.

Lincecum is probably my favorite pitcher to watch, and his strikeouts are impressive, but his season's stats have been artifically inflated by a highly favorable home park. Away from San Francisco he is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA. Moreover, the team's record is only 19-13 (.594) in his starts, compared to 66-61 (.520) in games started by other guys. That suggests he has only added about 2.5 wins compared to what their other starters would have done in 32 games. Not Cy Young territory. Not this year.

On the other hand, Carpenter's spectacular W-L percentage is deceptive. The Cards have actually done better in Wainwright's starts

• Carpenter's starts: 18-10 .643
  
• Wainwright's starts: 23-11 .676
  
• other starters (through 161 games): 50-49 .505
  

Based on the comparison to the other starters (in other words assuming a .505 record without them), Carpenter added 4 wins, Wainwright 6. Four wins is not normally in the stratosphere of post-season honors, but six is getting there.

Neither total is earth-shattering. Randy Johnson added more than 13 wins in his 1995 year. Steve Carlton added more than 18 in his incredible 1972 performance. (The team was 29-12 in his starts, 30-85 in all other games.)

Road stats don't provide much differentiation between Carpenter and Wainwright. Carpenter is 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA, which is the second-best road ERA in the NL (the Phillies' rookie J.A. Happ is first). That's impressive, but Wainwright is 12-1 on the road, which is equally impressive, although his road ERA is less imposing at 3.39.

Bottom line: it's very difficult to distinguish between them, but don't be swayed by Carpenter's W-L record. He may be the right choice, but that's the wrong reason.