Saturday, December 03, 2011

Houston, you have a problem.

The bubble has burst for the formerly undefeated Houston Cougars

They had a major bowl locked in if they could have won today. They could not. In fact, they were crushed 49-28, although the game was dead even statistically.

It's just as well that they lost now. If they lost by 3 TDs to Southern Miss, imagine what a bowl game against Oklahoma would have been like.

Houston's loss opened up some interesting possibilities for Southern Miss and TCU.

Southern Miss was rated 24th coming into that game and pounded the #7 team. If they get elevated to #16 or better, they could get an automatic bid, provided that they are ranked higher than West Virginia and TCU.
* They have to be higher than TCU, because only the top-rated conference champ from a non-BCS conference gets an automatic bid.

* And they have to be higher than West Virginia, because the automatic bid requires them to be ranked 16th or better, AND higher than at least one conference champion from the BCS conferences.
TCU is in the same situation. They are currently ranked #18. If they can climb to #16 or better, and are ranked higher than Southern Miss and West Virginia, they would get an automatic bid.

Being ranked higher than West Virginia does not seem to be a problem for either team, so the only question is whether either of them can make the top 16. (If they both make it, only the one with the better ranking would qualify.) That might be a significant hurdle. I looked at the 17 teams ranked above TCU, and I'm not sure if there's room for two of them to drop down, even if TCU wins today's game by 50 (which is a distinct possibility).

But it's all in the hands of the voters now.

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