Friday, January 27, 2012

FiveThirtyEight: 2012 Florida Republican Primary Projections - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com

FiveThirtyEight: 2012 Florida Republican Primary Projections

The see-saw battle continues.

As of today, 538 has reversed the projection from a 60% chance of a Gingrich win to a 69% chance of a Romney win. The three most recent polls show Romney with a 7-8 point lead, and that was before last night's debate, which most analysts saw as a Romney victory.

The volatility of this battle is unprecedented in my memory. Comparing apples-to-apples:

Rasmussen polls only. On January 22nd (this past Sunday), they showed Gingrich with a 9 point lead. On Wednesday they showed Romney ahead by 8. That's a 17-point swing in three days.

CNN/Time polls only. Sunday: Gingrich up by six. Tuesday: Romney up by nine. That's a 15-point swing in two days.

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