Gingrich Erases Romney's National Lead

Gingrich Erases Romney's 23-point National Lead - in one week

One week before, Republican voters nationwide preferred Romney 37-14 over Gingrich. The most recent Gallup tracking poll calls it 29-28.

That reflects Republican voters across the land, but Florida is trending the same way. Romney had a 12-point lead in Florida earlier this month, but one recent poll shows they are at 36-34, and those two points between them are less than the margin of error. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight forecast model projects Mr. Gingrich as the slight favorite in Florida, giving him a 60 percent chance of victory.

Gingrich was actually close to falling to third in the national Jan 11-15 poll. He was actually tied with Ron Paul at one point, but soared in the next seven days.

If you go back to Christmas week, Romney and Gingrich were once again tied, whereupon Romney opened up a massive lead. If you go back another three weeks, it was Gingrich who was 15 points ahead!

Gallup's analysis:

"The frequent nationally televised debates have been a major factor in this race so far. Gingrich's aggressive performances and ability to articulate policy positions at length have almost certainly benefited him. Gallup research conducted in December found that Republicans nationally said Gingrich had done the best job in the debates through that point. Romney's inability to respond forcefully to questions about his tenure at Bain Capital and his decision-making process concerning his tax returns have almost certainly weakened his position."

If Gallup is correct about the impact of the debates, then tonight's debate could well determine the winner in Florida. It's amazing that one of these debates could end up being important after we've seen, like, 52,000 others.

Another thought: one would think that a possible Santorum exit from the race would swing Gingrich into a massive lead. I'm assuming that Gingrich and Santorum are currently splitting the same bloc of conservative "anyone but Mitt" voters. That situation could well put Santorum into a powerful position as king-maker. He might well negotiate something substantial from Newt in return for his withdrawal/endorsement.