Sunday, January 15, 2012

The Pack is back - to watching the playoffs on TV.

New York Giants crush the Packers in Lambeau!


Odd game, in a way. The Packers had more first downs (25-19), more time of possession, and more total yards (388 from scrimmage + 122 on kick returns and interceptions for 510, compared to 424 for the Giants

The key stat was the three fumbles lost by the Pack. Statistically, a turnover is equivalent to the loss of 70 yards of total offense, which put the Giants on the top of the heap.

Actually, the score came out just as it theoretically should have. Adjusting for the three net gain in turnovers, the Giants held a 424-300 edge in yards. Statistically, one point is scored for every 13.3 yards gained, so the "theoretical" score was 32-23, which is just about how it finished.

The Saints and Texans basically lost the same way.

The Saints committed five turnovers, compared to one for the Niners. That's equivalent to a loss of 280 yards of offense, equivalent to about three touchdowns, and that's nearly impossible to overcome.

The Texans turned the ball over four times, compared to none for the Ravens. Again, that's roughly equivalent to spotting the other team 3 TDs. It's equivalent to a loss of 280 yards, which more than compensated for the fact that the Texans outgained the Ravens by 200 total yards! The "theoretical score" of that game was 19-13 Baltimore, compared to the actual score of 20-13 ... but take away those four turnovers, and the Texans have a theoretical 34-20 win.

Great weekend for the Patriots and Ravens. The two best QBs in the game, and possibly the two best teams in the AFC, were knocked out of the hunt, so the potential Super Bowl opponent just got much easier. Either the 49ers or the Giants will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Not many people had those teams on their pre-season dance card for the NFC championship game, especially with the Niners coming off a 6-10 season and a string of eight years without a winning season. The last time they had a winning record, their passing attack consisted of "Jeff Garcia to T.O."

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