The Dems have to have a little bit of trepidation about the possibility of a Ron Paul third party candidacy if he fails to get the GOP nomination.
If you assume a three-way race between Romney, Trump, and Obama, a Trump candidacy simply splits the anti-Obama vote and hands the President a second term with an overwhelming electoral vote count.
But a three-way with Romney, Paul and Obama has a different dynamic.
Paul could take a lot of disenchanted Obama supporters from the left because of Paul's anti-war, anti-establishment and pro-marijuana positions
He could also take a chunk from the right with his anti-bureaucracy, small government, strict constitutionalist, "cast the rascals out" positions. Although the Tea Party dislikes some of Paul's pragmatic positions, they do love his respect for the Constitution, and might flock to join his camp.
So what about the center? The CBS polls show that Ron Paul leads Obama by six points among independents who must choose one or the other!
A race like that could get crazy. And remember that if no candidate earns a majority of the electoral votes, the Presidential election is settled in the House, where the Republicans have a 50-vote plurality. In a scenario where Paul gets 49+% of the electoral votes, Obama gets 49+% and Romney carries only Utah, Romney could end up President! Tell me that wouldn't be some crazy shit!
No election has been decided by the House since 1825, but that aspect of the Constitution has not been modified, and the same outdated process is still in place. (And wouldn't that be a bitter irony for Ron Paul if he was the choice of the people but was cast aside by an archaic provision of his beloved Constitution.)
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Young voters propelling Ron Paul's campaign
Young voters propelling Ron Paul's campaign
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