The Republican convention produced a negative bounce for the GOP

Princeton: The Republican convention produced a negative bounce for the GOP?

Strange doings, indeed.

Note, however, that 538 does not agree. They place the bump at 2.6 points on the popular vote. That's still low. "By contrast, the average bounce for the challenger since 1968 is around eleven points."

It's worth mentioning that the two bump analyses are measuring different things: one is measuring the likely electoral outcome, while the other is measuring the popular vote. The Princeton model, the one which measures electoral college shifts, is highly sensitive to changes in the swing states, but other states are unaffected by day-to-day fluctuations in the polls since they remain firmly in one camp or another. Obama has nearly a 90-point lead in the District of Columbia, so no single event is going to put those electoral votes in Romney's corner unless the President publicly masturbates on a picture of Jesus. Probably not even that. Similarly, Romney has a 42-point lead in Utah, so he doesn't really need a positive bump there or fear a negative one. He'll win Utah unless he drinks a fifth of Jim Beam while torturing and killing Betty White and some baby seals on prime time TV.

Princeton's meta-analysis now shows the likely EV outcome: Obama 309, Romney 229.

538 calls it 317-221, with a 4.1 point Obama lead in the popular vote and a 10% chance of a landslide. They calculate that Obama has an 80% chance of winning the electoral vote, and an 81% chance of winning the popular vote.