GALLUP: Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

GALLUP Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney:

Romney has opened up a seven-point lead in the seven-day rolling average. If you reverse engineer these numbers (Excel spreadsheet), you'll see that Romney must be running some 10+ points ahead over the past three days (assuming they interview the same number of people each day). The candidates were running about even on the interviews conducted on the 14th, then Romney pulled ahead on the 15th and kept pulling away. That would indicate that there was some cataclysmic event on Sunday which affected Monday's poll, but in fact there was not, at least not that I can put a finger on.

Among registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, President Obama is down by a single point. That seems to indicate that Romney supporters are more likely to vote and that the Democrats may have an enthusiasm gap which could be closed by "getting out the vote."