Grading the BBWAA Voters on 2013 MLB Award Selections

Grading the BBWAA Voters on 2013 MLB Award Selections

The author quibbled about the Fernandez/Puig selection, mainly because the vote wasn't close. (Puig lost in a landslide.) I don't have any problem at all with that choice. From August 9th until the end of the year, Puig batted .241 with an OPS of .776 and looked like a very ordinary player. Jose Fernandez, on the other hand, just kept getting better and better as the season progressed. His final ERA of 2.19 was his best mark of the season except for the first few innings. It was 4.50 on May 3, and he just kept working it down all year.

But here's the real kicker: Fernandez was winning for the worst team in the National League, a team with 100 losses. From May onward, encompassing Jose's last 23 starts, Fernandez was 12-4 with a 1.82 ERA, and the team was 16-7 (.696) in his starts. The team was 38-74 (.339) in their other games. (Differential .357)

As the season progressed, he got even better than that. In his last 11 starts, he was 7-1 with a microscopic 1.34 ERA and a .85 WHIP. The team was 9-2 (.818) in his starts and 19-41 (.317) in other games. (Differential .501)

That's not just good. It's some of the best pitching of all time. Take a look at some of the most famous examples of great pitchers on crap teams:

In 1972, The Philadelphia Phillies were 29-12 (.707) in games started by Steve Carlton and 30-85 (.261) with other guys on the mound. (Differential .446).

In 1995 the Mariners were 27-3 (.900) in games started by Randy Johnson and 52-63 (.452) in games started by the eleven dwarfs. (Differential .448)

We don't have game logs for Walter Johnson's entire career yet, but the best differential I could find for him was .303 (1919: Johnson .642, others .339). Some of Johnson's prime seasons may have produced higher differentials, but the necessary data has not yet been assembled. I wish I had the data for 1913, when the 25-year-old Johnson won 36 games with a 1.14 ERA and pitched 11 shutouts, but the differential may not be that impressive, given that the Senators were actually a respectable 90-64 to finish in second that year.

Anyway, the point here is that Fernandez was pitching in the stratosphere towards the end of last season, and he was only a rookie, while the comparison's three all-time greats were seasoned pros. In their youth they were far less impressive. Walter Johnson started his career 32-48; Carlton 57-53; Randy Johnson 49-48.

I have no doubt that Fernandez earned that award. I can't remember a rookie pitcher dominating opposing batters like that since the last nine starts of Doc Gooden's rookie year, when he was 8-1 with a 1.07 ERA. Although I'm not suggesting that Fernandez can duplicate the feat, I guess you probably remember what Gooden did the following year, when he was 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, and won 18 of his last 19 decisions with the pennant on the line. (Oh, if only the Doc had never discovered recreational drugs!)