Trump Drops 12 Points In Republican Poll

Trump Drops 12 Points In Republican Poll

This is more than a bit misleading. He's still pulling 31 in this new Reuters-Ipsos poll, although he was only at 25 about two weeks ago. The confusing fact is that in between those two levels he had suddenly jumped 17 points among likely GOP voters, following the Milwaukee debate and the SNL appearance. The correct interpretation of the new poll is that he has now given back 12 points of that 17-point windfall. Yes, his trend is suddenly downward, and many establishment figures celebrate that first chink in his armor, but the same poll linked above shows that he still leads Ben Carson by 16 points after the drop-off, which represents overall a substantial net gain during the past two weeks. The 16-point lead reflected in this poll, which is supposed to represent his great fall, is actually far MORE than in the latest polls summarized at RCP, which show him with no more than a 10-point lead.

(In the RCP summary, Carson was the frontrunner on November 4th and 5th, albeit by a scant margin - 24.8 to 24.6. He now trails Trump by 7.7 in their analysis, but that has not been updated since the 19th, and Trump has come under fire since then.)

The same new Reuters-Ipsos poll also shows no strength among the establishment candidates, with Rubio, Cruz and Bush pulling 8-8-7 respectively. The earlier polls summarized at RCP show Rubio and Cruz in the 11-12 range, so they are simply failing to move the needle.