David Price says he’s saving postseason wins for Boston

David Price says he’s saving postseason wins for Boston

In that case, I hope he can skate, because he might make the post-season with the Bruins.

All kidding aside:

Is it worth it to offer a big 7-year contract to a 30-year-old pitcher? Just out of curiosity, I went to baseball-reference.com and looked up the ten most comparable players to Price at age 29. I eliminated the ones who are still active and looked at the post-age-29 careers of the others: Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Jon Candelaria and Doug Drabek.

And yes, they were all very similar to Price at age 29:

Drabek: 99 wins, 1494 innings, 3.11 ERA
Price: 104 wins, 1441 innings, 3.09 ERA
Hudson: 106 wins, 1432 innings, 3.33 ERA
Candelaria: 110 wins, 1613 innings, 3.15 ERA
Oswalt: 112 wins, 1413 innings, 3.07 ERA
Santana: 109 wins, 1543 innings, 3.11 ERA

The next seven years after age 29:

• Drabek had a 56-64 record and a dreadful 4.63 ERA in 1040 innings. WAR 5.
  
• Santana pitched 482 innings, went 30-27 with a 3.49 ERA. WAR 8.
  
• Candelaria threw 844 innings in posting a 67-44 record with a 3.57 ERA. WAR 11.
  
• Oswalt was 51-48 with a 3.85 in 832 innings. WAR 13
  
• Newly retired Tim Hudson was 91-56 in his first seven years after age 29 with a 3.52 ERA in 1149 innings. WAR 20.
  

The best case is Hudson, who had several solid seasons after age 29. The worst case scenario is the Drabek career because he really fell apart.

The average case was 59-48 with a 3.86 ERA in 869 innings, a net WAR of 11, and that would be a pretty durned weak return on $217 million, since it would cost nearly $20 million per win. Since A-Rod signed with the Rangers, he has collected about $365 million in salary, but he's produced a WAR of 81 - about four and a half million per win.

In other words, the most likely scenario (assumed to be the average of the five guys) is that he's costing four to five times as much per win as A-Rod.

If Hudson is the best case scenario, Price is still costing twice as much per win as A-Rod.