Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks - 6 years, more than $30 million per year

Zack Greinke agrees to deal with Diamondbacks - 6 years, worth $206 million

"The Dodgers offered Greinke a five-year deal worth $31 million per year."

Greinke is awesome, but those numbers are huge for a 32-year-old pitcher.

Applying the same logic I used on David Price, using the most comparable retired pitchers through age 31, I determined what they did for the rest of their careers.

Greinke's list of comps is much more impressive than Price's, filled with Hall of Fame material and Cy Young winners:

Through age 31

• Zack Greinke: 142 wins, 2094 innings, 3.35 ERA
  
• Bret Saberhagen: 141 wins, 2227 innings, 3.26 ERA
  
• John Smoltz: 146 wins, 2228 innings, 3.36 ERA
  
• Mike Mussina: 147 wins, 2009 innings, 3.53 ERA
  
• Bob Welch: 132 wins, 2065 innings, 3.20 ERA
  
• Jack Morris: 144 wins, 2121 innings, 3.57 ERA
  
• Tom Glavine: 153 wins, 2196 innings, 3.40
  
• John Candelaria: 131 wins, 1924 innings, 3.14 ERA
  

The first six years after age 31:

• Bret Saberhagen pitched only 335 innings, 26-17, 3.90 ERA, 6 WAR.
  
• John Smoltz became a reliever after he missed the 2000 season. He was 17-16 with 154 saves in 471 innings, 2.86 ERA, 12 WAR
  
• Mike Mussina was 92-53 in 1200 innings, 3.80 ERA, 29 WAR.
  
• Bob Welch was 79-51 in 1026 innings with a 4.01 ERA, 8 WAR - and one spectacular season with 27 wins!
  
• Jack Morris was 93-74 in 1408 innings, 3.97 ERA, 14 WAR
  
• Tom Glavine was 98-58 in 1331 innings with a 3.47 ERA, 24 WAR.
  
• John Candelaria was 44-27, partially as a reliever, in 556 innings, with a 3.83 ERA and a WAR of 6.
  

Viewed from this perspective, the Greinke deal is better than the Price contract because Greinke is starting from a higher level, so the comps are more impressive (except Candelaria, of course, who is in both groups) and the upside potential is higher. None of the seven blew up completely, and only Candelaria drifted into mediocrity.

Greinke's most likely scenario (the average of 14 WAR over 6 years) and his upside (29 WAR over six years) both indicate that this is a better deal than the Price contract.

Cost per win:

• Price: best case $11 million; average case $20M.
• Greinke: best case $7 million; average case $15M.

You'll note from the chart above that the method is anything but infallible. Saberhagen and Smoltz had just about identical numbers at age 31, but Saberhagen's career was nearly over at that point, while Smoltz went on forever, despite losing an entire year to injuries. He lasted until age 42, including several solid years as a starter in the period after the one studied above (twice in the top seven in Cy Young balloting), and three tremendous years as a closer in the studied period (including a 55-save season which earned him a third place in the Cy Young balloting).