Saturday, January 19, 2008

McCain wins South Carolina
I'm not sure what's wrong with the national networks, but Huckabee is mathematically eliminated. McCain is winning by 5% with 72% counted. Simple artihmetic shows that Huckleberry would have to win the remaining precincts by 12% to carry the state, and he obviously has no prayer of doing that because the largest source of unreported votes is Myrtle Beach, where Huckleberry is no factor.

Why did McCain win?


  • McCain did better in Huckleberry territory than vice-versa. Huck beat McCain 40-27 among evangelicals, but Huckabee got only fourteen percent of other voters. In that group Huckabee finished fourth, and had to overcome a 24 point deficit to McCain!
  • Huckabee might well have won the state if Fred Thompson had withdrawn. Huckleberry and Balloo not only compete for the most conservative voters, but also for the all-important cartoon animal vote.

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