Because no new film took in more than $16.5 million last week, and since almost all movies can be expected to drop at least 40% after their opening weekend, it would seem that a new film could take the #1 spot this week with a mere $10 million. Astoundingly, only one is likely to achieve that modest target. The Last Exorcism is expected to be #1 with about $17 million in 2700 theaters. Takers may or may not reach #2 with about #10m in 2000 theaters.
The only other "new" wide release this week is a special edition of Avatar, which will be in 700 theaters. It is not expected to make the top ten.
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