Monday, October 31, 2011

SULLY BASEBALL: Nelson Cruz's play was worse than Bill Buckner's error

"Nelson Cruz's play was worse than Bill Buckner's error"


There is some truth to that.

First of all, Cruz's catch would have ended the series right then and there.

Second, Buckner's error caused a 40% swing in game probability, Cruz's 54%. (When Freese stepped into the batter's box, the Cards had an 8.7% chance to win. The Cruz play changed the number to 62.4%.) You could look at it another way. If Cruz makes the catch, the Cardinals' chances are dead zero. By missing it, he lifts it to 62.

Just about any other major league outfielder makes that catch. I think I could have made it. And I'm not talking about when I was 22. I mean now.

This is not to diminish Nelson. He's a good ballplayer and he had a great post-season. The Rangers would never have gotten that far without him. He's just not a Gold Glove guy.

1 comment:

  1. Are a lot of people in Texas saying that? I admit I'm a Cards fan but it was an opposite field screamer right at him which is hard to judge. I was also thinking if someone like Fucal had hit that it probably would have been a series ending inside the park HR. Freese has had two reconstructed ankles and is one of the slowest runners on the team.

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