I skipped down to the national match-ups. There are some interesting revelations there.
Hillary runs about even with Trump and Cruz - actually a slight deficit within the margin of error - but loses to Rubio by 6 and gets crushed by ... wait for it ... John Kasich! Kasich beats Hillary by 11 points.
Sanders also runs about even with Trump and Cruz - he beats Cruz and loses to Trump in dead heats within the margin of error, but loses to Rubio by 4 and Kasich by 3.
In other words:
1. Sanders polls better than Hillary against potential GOP opponents.
2. John Kasich may not be a likely nominee, but if nominated he could probably deliver the White House. As ol' Mel Allen used to say, "How 'bout that?" The detailed breakdowns show that Kasich beats or ties Hillary among every demographic group except African-Americans, and in every part of the country, including the liberal west and northeast. (Voters in the West, young voters and female voters are actually a dead heat, but Hillary has no strengths except among black voters.) Among avowed independents, Kasich beats Hillary 60-20.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
The latest Suffolk University / USA Today poll (released today)
The latest Suffolk University / USA Today poll (released today)
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A Hillary / Kasich campaign would have the lowest turnout (by percentage) in history. If Sanders doesn't win the nomination, his supporters may not vote, but if they do they are unlikely to vote for anyone other than Hillary, which would change the head-to-head polling numbers considerably, especially if Trump or Cruz get the Republican nod. I doubt there are a lot of Sanders supporters who have either as #2. Wait. Let me restate that. I doubt they have either as #2 on their ballot.
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