Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog -

A this point it seems almost certain that Republicans will control the House (84% likelihood)and Democrats will hold on to the Senate (90% likelihood.) The 538 forecasts say that the Democrats will actually lose a higher percentage of the contested races in the Senate, but remember that Senatorial elections are staggered, so 40 Democrats and 23 Republicans are NOT up for reelection this term. Of the 37 seats which are being contested, 22 are likely to go GOP, 10 are likely to go Democratic and the other five are toss-ups at this point. The Democrats would therefore need to win the ones they are leading and only one of the five toss-ups to retain control.