"Picking Colbert to replace Letterman? CBS really screwed up"

"Picking Colbert to replace Letterman? CBS really screwed up."

I don't think that CBS screwed up at all when it comes to producing the best possible show. Colbert is smart, funny and dedicated.

However ...

The article may have a point when it comes to hiring Colbert as a financial decision. The late night audience is not especially young and/or hip. When it comes to ratings, Jay Leno was the top dog forever. And conservatives despise Colbert. So Colbert will be splitting the younger audience with wise-asses Kimmel and Conan and the likeable young Fallon, and he might get utterly destroyed with the older audience.

Colbert is much stronger in the 18-49 demographic than he is with older audiences. In fact, his Colbert Report places third nationally in that 18-49 target audience, beating both Conan and Letterman, but he'll have tough sledding in that group against Fallon, who has had time to find an appreciative audience. In the 18-49 demographic, the YTD (Feb 17th through April 4) 11:30 numbers look like this:

Fallon 2.01 million
Kimmel .85
Colbert .75
Letterman .71
Conan .42

Yes, Colbert is remarkably strong there for a basic cable guy, but can he beat the firmly entrenched Mr. Fallon on the big stage?

Meanwhile, you can expect Fallon to take away a bunch of Letterman's older audience when Colbert takes over. My guess is that those older viewers will find the old-fashioned, nice guy, Art Linklettery appeal of Fallon easier to swallow than the brilliant but smug Colbert.

Here's how the 11:30 slot currently looks for all other viewers (those NOT 18-49):

Fallon 3.01 million
Letterman 2.06
Kimmel 1.79
Colbert .60
Conan .34

Letterman is a respectable second in that group (as opposed to a distant fourth with the 18-49 crowd), but I don't think Colbert will be able to hold that audience.

In other words, NBC's earlier decision to hire Jimmy Fallon, so widely criticized at the time, turned out to be a stroke of absolute genius. He's far ahead, and I expect him to pull away.

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Apropos of nothing, here's how the 12:30 time slot looks YTD:


18-49 demo:
Seth Myers .91 million (45% of Fallon's audience)
Craig Ferguson .46 (65% of Letterman's audience)

Other viewers:
Seth Myers: 1.11 million (37% of Fallon's audience)
Craig Ferguson .89 million (43% of Letterman's audience)

This is interesting mainly because of the reason why Seth beats Craig. It's because of his superior lead-in. Fallon slaughters Letterman almost three to one in the 18-49 demo, and wins three to two even among Letterman's core audience. Although Ferguson holds a greater percentage of viewers from the 11:30, there are just not enough of those viewers on CBS.

I'm guessing that Ferguson will be seeking other employment when his contract expires next June. There are many reasons, not the least of which is that Letterman is his mentor and technically his employer as well (CBS gave that slot to Letterman's Worldwide Pants company as part of the deal to retain Dave.) With Worldwide Pants out of the picture come June of 2015, CBS seems to be considering pretty much everyone else for 12:30, from Chelsea Handler to John Oliver, Neil Patrick Harris, and probably even me and that guy who played Potsie on Happy Days. At least Craig will get a nice consolation prize. His current contract calls for him to get several million dollars if he's passed up for Letterman's job, so that's now in his pocket.