Sunday, March 22, 2015

NCAA College Basketball Tournament - round of 32, day 1

NCAA College Basketball Tournament - round of 32, day 1

There was only one true upset, but it was a major one. Villanova became the first #1 seed to fall, and they deserved to lose. They shot only 31% and were out-rebounded 45-32. Credit NC State for some great D and solid fundamentals.

#5 Utah beat #4 Georgetown, but that was no upset. Utah came into the game favored by 5, and according to Sagarin's metrics, they could have been seeded as high as #2 (he ranked them eighth in the nation - ahead of Kansas, although the Jayhawks won their head-to-head contest 63-60).

#6 Butler gave #3 Notre Dame a scare, but eventually fell in OT.

With the fall of the two Cinderella 14s, #11 Dayton and #11 UCLA are the weakest seeds left in the tournament, but Dayton hasn't made it through the round of 32 yet. Many people thought UCLA did not deserve a bid at all, but they are now headed into the Sweet 16! In fairness to the Bruins, it should be noted that those people who argued against them are basically advocates of diversity over competence. They were not arguing that Murray State or Colorado State or any of the other wannabes could beat the Bruins head-to-head, or at least I don't think that was the argument. Remember that UCLA played two of those marginal tournament teams (Coastal Carolina and UAB) early in the year and beat them by double figures. Moreover, Sagarin had the Bruins rated #40 in the nation, which indicates that their invitation to the Big Dance was a reasonable one in terms of strength alone. Their ascension to the Sweet Sixteen is unexpected, but is based solely on one controversial upset victory over SMU in the round of 64. It was certainly no surprise that they defeated UAB easily in the round of 32 since they had already beaten the same team by a similar margin in November.

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