Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Post DNC Debate Poll Results

Post DNC Debate Poll Results

As a great man once said, opinions are like assholes, everybody has one. Everybody seems to have an opinion about who won the Donkey Debate yesterday. A lot of the mainstream news sites are declaring Hillary triumphant, while all of the online polls have gone to Bernie Sanders.

Online polls are essentially meaningless. Ten thousand votes could be the same guy voting ten thousand times. The high Bernie vote could be a result of fanatical supporters, or even fanatical Republicans who would rather run against Bernie.

OAN conducted a real scientific poll of potential Democratic voters, and here are the results:

Who won?
Hillary 62%, Bernie 30%. I think that probably means they were about even. People tend to think that a debate was won by their candidate, and in the most recent national poll, Clinton leads Sanders 45-25. Hillary's 62-30 margin in the debate is equivalent to a ratio of 67-33 on a 100 percent scale. Her poll lead of 45-25 is equivalent to 64-36. Taking into account the margin of error in both samples, I'd call it a draw, with a possible slight edge to Hillary.

Who was the worst?
Chaffee 43%, Webb 32%

More or less favorable opinion now (shown as: "more" minus "less"):
Clinton +57
Sanders +47
O'Malley +23
Webb -31
Chaffee -42

Again, possibly a slight edge to Hillary, but nothing to write home about. (Sidebar: Obviously Martin O'Malley did the best of the minor candidates. Now if only I knew who the fuck he is. Is he that lovable old English guy from The Gumball Rally?)

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