Phillies' Rhys Hoskins fastest to 10 home runs in MLB history
Players sure are hitting a lot of dingers this year. They have amassed 1.27 per game. The previous record was set in the height of the steroids era (2000), with 1.17.
There has been nearly a 50% increase in just three years!
2014 0.86 (Lowest since 1992)
2015 1.01
2016 1.16
2017 1.27
At the same time, MLB is on pace to hit the fewest triples in history, and the "rate stats" are not near historical highs. It's becoming more and more of an "all or nothing" game. As a result, although there are more homers now than in the steroid days, run production is not as high. Players in 2000 produced 5.14 runs per game with an OPS of .782. This year: 4.67 and .753. The major contributor to the decline: on-base percentage has dropped 20 points since 2000. The good news (for hitters) is that the decline in run production occurred from 2000-2014 (2014 was the lowest-scoring year since 1981) and is now creeping back upward.
Strikeouts, however, continue to increase. They have more than doubled since WW2, and have now increased 12 consecutive years. Strikeouts have increased more than 25% just in the short time since 2000. There are now 8.23 strikeouts per game. As recently as 1981, the rate was below 5.0. That rapid change in the game stands in stark contrast to the four decades between 1910 and 1950, when strikeout rates stayed nearly constant.
No doubt related is that complete games are at an all-time low. Right now the leaders in the NL have 2!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/CG_leagues.shtml
No NL pitcher has reached double-digits since 1999.
The AL is slightly higher, because pitchers in that league don't have to be pulled for late-game pinch-hitters, but has still reached new lows over the past few seasons.
I'd have to look up the sources, but there is evidence out there that MLB juiced the ball, presumably because Manfred thinks HRs = dollars. I suspect with homers easier to come by, hitters have become even more aggressive, thus the exponentially accelerated uptick in Ks.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is while this "all or nothing" version of the game is tailor made for highlight packages, it is brutally boring to watch for 9 innings. Games have pretty much just been on in the background at my house when I've bothered to tune in at all this season. This style of play is going to hit a point of diminishing returns for the sport sooner rather than later.
This all goes back to analytics. The 'low percentage plays'... grounders that lead to singles, bunts are all being steadily abandoned in favor of going for the home run, which leads to many more strikeouts as well.
ReplyDeleteIt also leads to more walks as hitters don't 'chase balls' like they used to and this has lead to longer turns at the bats and longer games.