Other Crap

Weekend Box Office Results, October 14-16, 2005

• Led by three weak new releases, the total box was down 19% from the same week last year.
• Two of the three new films performed well below expectations.
• The Fog performed just about at par with expectations, which is amazing considering it is a remake and had the worst reviews of the three new films. It seems to me that the strategy of not pre-screening it for critics was effective - and cynical, since they obviously knew what a lemon it was and tried to make as much lemonade as possible. Cynical or just practical? That's a matter of spin. Bottom line: it worked! Given the film's modest $18 million budget, it appears that The Fog will break even or better. It may even be highly profitable. If it grosses $35 million in the USA, it will cover production costs, thus hauling in a profit from DVD, overseas, cable, etc.
• I doubt that The Fog will gross $35 million, even though it is now on target. On the average, films made for adults finish with 3X the opening weekend. (Kids' movies do better.) One would think that poor word of mouth will drop this one below the 3X average. But so it does only $27-$30 million? As our President would say, "Mission accomplished."
• A note on the wide range in predictions for Elizabethtown. The Weekend Warrior makes his predictions on Tuesday, and he had to do so without seeing the reviews. The Box Office Mojo guy waits until Friday, and was able to make a much more accurate prediction with more facts at his disposal.
• The Gospel also tanked, dropping 60% on week two, after its rousing and surprising start. The initial marketing blitz could only carry it for a while. Word of mouth failed to support that initial push.
• Clooney's Murrow movie continued to kick ass, indicating that people will still go to movies if they are worth watching (96% good reviews). In expanding from 11 screens to 69, it was able to maintain some spectacular revenues per screen, and finished 16th for the week. It took in more on 69 screens than Emily Rose took in on a thousand!
• Similarly, Wallace & Gromit and A History of Violence, other films with 90% positive reviews, also performed well. Wallace & Gromit dropped only 27% from last week. A History of Violence actually improved from 9th last week to 8th!