Thursday, January 04, 2007

Is Mark McGwire a Hall of Famer?
Ridiculous question, if you are asking it based on his performance. You think Tony Gwynn was a good hitter, right? His lifetime on base percentage was .388. McGwire's was .394. Look at that another way. Gwynn is considered a hall of famer strictly for his ability to get on base, but McGwire was better at that. And that was the best part of Gwynn's offensive game, and the worst part of McGwire's! McGwire was a far, far better hitter than guys like Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks, and those guys are not borderline Hall of Famers. In fact, McGwire has a higher lifetime OBP and a higher SLG than Willie Mays, and his numbers are also better relative to the leagues he played in.

  • On Base: McGwire .394, Mays .384
  • On Base versus league: McGwire .062, Mays .055
  • Slugging: McGwire .588, Mays .557
  • Slugging versus league: McGwire .180, Mays .157

Plus, Mays's overall stats are padded by six years in the Polo Grounds, and his "comparison to league" stats are helped by playing his entire career in a league without a designated hitter, so the league performance always includes the batting of pitchers. McGwire's advantage over the league (.062, .180) is comparable to Jimmy Foxx's (.066, .187), and again you must remember that Foxx is always compared to leagues where pitchers got 10% of the at bats. So if your question is, "Does a guy who was as good a hitter as Willie Mays and Jimmy Foxx belong in the Hall of Fame?", I believe the precise answer is "Duh!"

On the other hand, if you are asking based upon skepticism about his substance use, maybe you have a point, but I don't know.

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