Saturday, January 19, 2008

Ron Paul finishes second in Nevada, Satan buys ice skates.
As usual, Clinton and Obama split the delegates down the middle: 25 at stake, 13 to Clinton, 12 to Obama. In fact, it is possible that Obama will actually get the 13!

This time, however, Haircut Boy got a goose egg. It's beginning to look like His Neatness will never get to exercise those magical Presidential insurance-removing powers. He is, however, starting to look like the guy whose support might break the deadlock between the other two. If neither Hillary nor Obama can go to the convention with a majority of the delegates, Edwards may go to that convention wielding some real power. Most guys would use that power to leverage the VP spot on the ticket, but Edwards has been there, done that, so I'm not sure what he'd ask for.

The GOP had 31 seats up for grabs. Guy Smiley took 18, nobody else took more than 4.

Sub-points:

  • Hillary took a big edge in the female vote and among elderly people. (She beat Obama 60-31 among voters 60 and older). Hillary won convincingly among those who thought the debate was important. Edwards, on the other hand, got totally destroyed (4%) by voters who found the debate "very important."
  • Diametrically opposed to the Iowa results, the Nevada caucuses produced a proportionate loss for Edwards relative to the the entrance polls. In Iowa Edwards was a distant third in the entrance polls, but edged Hillary for second after the caucus process produced an extra 6-7% swing in his favor. In Nevada Edwards voters were 8-9% of the people going in, but Edwards picked up only 4% after the caucusing. I guess they backed off when they realized they were betting on a losing horse.
  • On the GOP side, Guy Smiley's strength was nearly identical across all demographic groups, but the psychographic breakdown showed some significant differences. Romney scored very powerfully among those who considered the campaign ads important, but only pulled 31% of the voters who considered ads "not important at all."
  • Although Romney did not do as well with evangelical Christians, he still beat Saint Huckleberry 39-22 in that category, so his Mormon faith is probably not as important as everyone has led us to believe.

1 comment:

  1. How many evangelical Christians can their be in a state that legalized prostitution?

    ReplyDelete