FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

The latest from FiveThirtyEight.com (Electoral Projections Done Right)

Their model shows that McCain has a 0.00% chance of winning the election of he loses Florida and Ohio, and a 0.09% chance of winning the election if he loses Ohio, period.

Flip that around to understand it better. If Obama wins Ohio, he has a 99.9% chance of winning the election. Ohio is, as they say, the whole ballgame for Johnny Mac. The whole enchilada. The whole magilla. The whole ball of wax.

The latest polls show Obama ahead in Ohio, but by less than the margin of error.

If McCain does win both Ohio and Florida, then the election is a coin flip (50.5-49.5). And he is still competitive in both states.