FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania

McCain's virtual concession of Colorado and other recent trends now reduce his odds in several scenarios. Even if McCain wins BOTH Ohio and Florida, he is still a 65-35 underdog.

BUT ... if McCain wins those two plus Pennsylvania, he goes from 35-65 underdog to 98-2 favorite to win - virtually a certainty. Winning all three of those states is his path to the Presidency. In other words, you can bet that he will be concentrating a lot of firepower on the Keystone State and its bitter, religious, gun-totin' denizens.

The strategy is right in theory. Pennsylvania seems to be his only chance, and it is possible, but it will be a long row to hoe. The election is only two weeks away and the last three polls in Pennsylvania show Obama with about an 11 point edge.