FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support

"This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year."

There were five new Pennsylvania polls released yesterday, and they all show the same result: Obama sitting on a lead in the low double digits. That's a double-barreled hit for McCain, troublesome not just because the results are bad but also because the results are unchanged from earlier polls, so McCain appears to be making absolutely no progress at cutting into Obama's lead in the Keystone State.

There were two new polls in Ohio and they say the same thing as the ones in Pennsylvania: Obama leading by double digits. That's even worse news for McCain than Pennsylvania because it represents a clear move toward Obama.

The worst news of all is that two new polls show McCain behind in Florida by more than the margin of error.

Five thirty eight now estimates McCain's chances to win at less than 4%, and calculates about a 50-50 chance of an Obama landslide of 375 or more. The five most likely scenarios are now all between 375 and 380 electoral votes for B.O.