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The Weekend Warrior: box office analysis for Nov. 26 - 30

There are three new films to choose from: a family Christmas comedy with Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon, the action-oriented Transporter 3, and the romantic historical epic cum travelogue known simply as Australia. None of them have very good reviews. This is family holiday time. The serious Oscar bait starts to appear next week. ("Milk" will have a thirty-screen trial run this weekend, and the reviews are currently running hot, to the tune of 90%+ positive.)

Twilight is expected to hold the top spot over the weekend, with none of the three new films mounting a real challenge. Four Christmases (26% positive reviews) is expected to take in about $33 million over five days, for a distant second place on the strength of its distribution into 3300 theaters. Transporter 3 (35% positive reviews) is expected to straggle into the sixth spot with some $19 million, not much for a five-day holiday in 2600 theaters. Australia's performance (51%) is anybody's wild-ass guess because nobody knows if there is any market for this type of old-fashioned film, but Warrior pegs his best estimate at $22 million in 2600 theaters, which would place it fifth, just ahead of Transporter. The cartoon dog and James Bond are expected to hold on to #3 and #4.

• Here's the Rotten Tomatoes link for the reviews.
  
• Here's the Box Office Mojo link for the theater counts