New York Mets' Johan Santana to have surgery for shoulder tear - ESPN New York

Johan Santana to have surgery for shoulder tear

My guess is that he has had serious shoulder problems for a long, long time. I suppose maybe three and a half years, getting worse this year. Here are his strike-outs per 9 innings throughout his career.

2002 11.38

2003 9.61

2004 10.46

2005 9.25

2006 9.44

2007 9.66

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2008 7.91

2009 7.88

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2010 6.51

The chart above makes it seem like a problem started in 2008, but I think the shoulder was actually starting to bother him on-and-off in the summer of 2007. After July 13th of that year he was 4-7 with a 4.35 ERA. During that period he would be his old self in one or two outings, then have no gas, then be his old self again. He had one spectacularly good outing in which he fanned 17 in eight innings, while allowing only two hits, but after that he had an ERA near 5.00 in September. I think he was pitching through pain because it was his contract year. It worked. The Mets shelled out a bundle, but I personally think they got damaged goods.

It is to his credit that he's still a terrific pitcher, but he's definitely not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. In 2002 he struck out about 140 guys in about 100 innings. This year he struck about the same number of guys, but in about 200 innings.