New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles - Box Score - September 17, 2010 - ESPN

A-Rod wins this one on his own.

His two homers, including a dramatic game winner in the ninth, knocked in all four of the Yanks' runs, as the Bombers held on to their slim lead. According to the metrics used by ESPN, the AL playoff teams are already set (98% probability or more). Sorry, Boston.

What's not settled is the match-ups. Since the Yankees and Tampa can't play each other, the one with a better record will play the Rangers. Frankly, I don't see much of an advantage to drawing the Rangers over the Twins.