Chipper Jones headed for the HOF?

Talkin' Baseball ... where does Chipper Jones rank among the third basemen

I noticed he hit a homer today. He turns 39 next week and I wondered how his HOF credentials are stacking up.

Very well.

Quick down-and-dirty offensive indicator: take a player's number of plate appearances and multiply it times his performance per plate appearance (adjusted OPS as a ratio - in other words, use 1.42 rather than 142). The net result shows both quality and quantity.

Here's the result for third basemen:

Brett: 15692

Schmidt: 14791

Mathews: 14444

Boggs: 13962

Chipper: 13781

Santo: 11745


Mathews and Chipper - perfect comparison.

Eddie Mathews was a great hitter. Even better than you think, because of the era and parks he played in. His career overlapped Stan Musial's for 12 seasons, 1952-63. Here's how they stacked up in those specific years:

OPS SLG OPS+
Mathews .386 .535 151
Musial .404 .536 147

Dead even. That's how good Mathews was: in those years, as good as Stan the Freakin' Man. (And for me to admit anyone was as good as Stasiu could get me kicked out of the Polish Falcons.)

But Chipper is just as good. Every bit as good.

Mathews had a 143 adjusted OPS for his entire career, Chipper is now at 142. At the end of this year, they will have just about identical numbers of plate appearances. Both were essentially career Braves. (Chipper 100%, Mathews 95% of his plate appearances.) Both led the league in OBP one year. They are two peas in a pod.

Chipper finished in the top 11 in the MVP balloting 8 times, compared to only four for Mathews - and Chipper did it in a larger league, therefore competing against more guys. Chipper won an MVP. Mathews never won, but finished second twice. On balance, I'd call it dead even, maybe even a slight edge to Chipper.

So I'd say Chipper's HOF credentials are completely obvious.