After losses by numbers #2, #4, #5 and #7, the entire picture has been revised. The number 1-2-3 teams in the nation will now be three SEC teams: Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas. That means the national championship game very well may be an all-SEC affair. Remember that the "two team limit" rule means that one of those three will not be in the BCS bowls. Imagine how much LSU has on the line next week. It's really all-or-nothing. If they win, they are #1 in the nation. If they lose, two different SEC teams make the BCS, and LSU is headed out to Lower Slobovia, Idaho to play in the Tidy Bowl.
Here's a really weird possibility. Suppose the season ended today with LSU-Alabama-Arkansas 1-2-3, but LSU lost the conference championship game to Georgia, thereby making Alabama and Arkansas 1-2 in the BCS standings. What would happen then? In that case, the "two teams per conference rule" is broken. The rule says: "No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games unless two non-champions from a BCS conference finish as the top two teams in the final BCS standings, in which case they will meet in the National Title Game while their conference champion will play in their conference's BCS bowl game." In that example I created, Georgia would go to the Sugar Bowl as conference champ and Alabama and Arkansas would play for the national title, even though neither of them won even their half of the conference! And poor ol' LSU would once again be mounting those dogsleds for their trip to the Tidy Bowl, which is covered on cable access TV throughout the Lower Slobovia area, and even in the parts of Upper Slobovia where ol' Clem Eustice has already laid the cables.
That's a case where Arkansas and Alabama could benefit from finishing second and third in their half of the conference instead of first, because staying out of the conference championship game eliminates one chance to lose.
Formerly undefeated #2 Oklahoma State loses to Iowa State in double overtime
They blew both a 24-7 lead, and their national championship dreams. The final score was not some kind of fluke. Iowa State had the numbers as well. They had more offensive yards from scrimmage (568 yards vs 536); they had more return yardage (121-81); and they had fewer turnovers (3 versus 5).
SIDEBAR: I just went over the complex rules for BCS team selection, and it appears that Houston may well be guaranteed a spot if they keep winning. The rule states: "The highest-ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if it is ranked in the top 12."
Here's where it gets complicated. Houston is ranked below Boise at the moment, which seems to mean they won't be the top non-BCS team ...
... BUT ...
... Boise will (probably) not be a conference champion. If everything progresses as expected, TCU will win Boise's conference. TCU is undefeated in conference play and its two remaining games are against weak teams (3-6, 2-7). Since Houston is rated much higher than TCU, they would then be the highest-ranked conference champ in the non-BCS group. Since their ranking is #11, they would be in automatically. All they have to do is keep winning.
In that scenario Boise could be taking their top-10 ranking out there to East Buttfuck, South Dakota to play in the Toilet Bowl, despite the fact that there's no airport or train service to East Buttfuck. In fact, there's no paved roads, so both teams would have to arrive in Conestoga Wagons, or dog sleds if it's snowed over. Now that's good television. Actually, there is an alternative. I think they can land seaplanes on a small lake near West Buttfuck, then canoe over to East Buttfuck on the mighty, thundering Buttfuck River, which the local Native Americans originally called Parisitissippi - not the father of waters, but "the freeloading brother-in-law of waters." That plan will work even in January because the Buttfuck River never freezes over, presumably because of the chemicals poured into it by the local nuclear waste treatment plant. At least I'm guessing that's the reason it doesn't freeze, because the river is day-glow green and foamy. Of course the teams will have to make sure that they don't actually tip over their canoes and tumble into the water. They might survive the pollution long enough to play the game, but the mutant piranhas are another matter.
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Furthermore, the bar for a non-automatic-qualifying conference champion to make a BCS bowl is actually #16 or better if they are ranked higher than any AQ-conference's champion. Currently, no one in the Big East is even ranked. If Houston falters, TCU (currently #19 with Colorado State and UNLV to go) would still have a shot barring any poll shenanigans that magically put a Big East team in the Top 15 by season's end.
Southern Miss was in the mix, too, at #20 and with a possible chance to knock off Houston in the CUSA title game, but they got punked by UAB Thursday night to put an end to their hopes.
#4 Oregon lost to USC
That's not such a big surprise. USC is good. They have no national ranking because they're not allowed to have one. They are also ineligible for the conference championship game and post-season games.
For the record, Sagarin's "predictor" system ranked USC 16th in the nation before they beat Oregon.
#5 Oklahoma lost to Baylor
Baylor's QB threw for 479 yards and 4 TDs. Oh, and he also rushed for 72 yards. The Heisman voters need to look at this one. That guy has talent and a pair of cojones the size of Studebakers. It was the single most dominating performance against a great team since Vince Young made mighty USC look like a Pop Warner team back in ought six.
And the #7 Clemson Tigers have played themselves out of the top ten.
They were flat-out crushed by the defense of unheralded North Carolina State. They turned the ball over four times (compared to none for NC State), and converted only 2 of 14 third downs.
They're humiliated, but not out of the bowl picture. The ACC winner gets an automatic invitation to the Orange Bowl. The conference championship game will probably feature Clemson against Virginia Tech, a team which gave the Tigers no problem earlier in the year.
Michigan State has clinched its half of the Big Ten
The Saturday results eliminate both Nebraska and Michigan from the Big Ten race. Michigan State will play either Wisconsin or Penn State in the conference championship game, depending on the outcome of the head-to-head game between those two teams next week.
The Spartans defeated Wisconsin 37-31 earlier in the year, but have not previously played Penn State.
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