40 Most Overrated Players in Baseball Right Now

40 Most Overrated Players in Baseball Right Now

I dunno. The case against A-Rod and Ichiro is that they aren't as good as they used to be, but I'm not sure that makes them overrated. As I see it, everyone knows that they aren't the players they were a decade ago. Nobody expects Ichiro to get 250 hits this year, and nobody expects A-Rod to have one of those 50-140 years. People tend to rate them pretty much at the level of their current performance. They may be overpaid (as almost all players tend to be in the later years of lengthy contracts), but that's not the same as overrated.

My problem with "overrated" lists is that they invariably lack half of the equation required to make a fair judgment. Overrated would be defined as "player's expectation level" divided by "player's performance level" - the higher the number, the more overrated the player. We have solid measurements of the denominator (performance), but really have no objective gauge of the fans' level of expectation. One exception comes to mind. In the case of Derek Jeter, he is clearly overrated and always has been, at least when it comes to his glove. Fans and sportswriters tend to think of him as a defensive stalwart at shortstop, although every objective measurement has consistently placed him in, or very close to, last place among MLB shortstops, even in his best years. Given his five Gold Gloves, its fair to say that some people thought he was the best defensive shortstop in the league when he was arguably the worst. In that case, it's fair to say he was overrated.

To be fair, let me add that I would not conclude that he was overrated in general. He was a great hitter for many years. In 1999 he had an OPS+ of 153. (He batted .349 with more than 100 RBI and 134 runs scored while his team proceeded toward an 11-1 post-season which included a sweep of the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. In that series Jeter hit more than .350 against Maddux, Millwood, Glavine and Smoltz!) That kind of offensive production from a shortstop made him a great player overall, and indicated an overall performance level consistent with how people viewed him.

In my opinion a lot of the "overrating" in baseball relates to defensive performance. When it comes to offense, assuming you look at the right stats, what you see is what you get. If a guy has a 150 OPS+, he's good with the stick. If it's 80, he sucks, and there's no hiding that. The only exception to pure objectivity in offensive measurement is that a lot of fans and even sportswriters and ex-players still tend to be overly impressed by a guy who hits .300 with no power or walks. I suppose that's a carry-over from the old days before Sabermetrics.

Defense is another story. People tend to evaluate players based on a few impressions, and those impressions can be misleading or just plain wrong. A guy who makes a few spectacular plays gets the Gold Gloves, but the steady guy who gets to every ball is the one who deserves the award. I've heard many old timers repeat what I call the the Dimaggio Mantra - "Nobody ever saw DiMaggio make a great catch. He was always there waiting for the ball when it arrived." I don't know how accurate that is, but if it is true, it illustrates my point perfectly. Everyone remembers that Fred Lynn made dozens of circus catches, but nobody can remember one made by DiMaggio. Does that mean that Lynn was a better fielder? Not necessarily.