Saturday, August 25, 2012

Melky Cabrera is on his way to a batting title.

Melky Cabrera is on his way to a batting title.:

Although Melky has only 501 plate appearances, and a player needs 502 to qualify, there is still a way he can win, under rule 10.22a (The so-called Gwynn Rule). His one additional plate appearance will simply be treated as an out, and if he still has the highest average after that adjustment, he's in like Flynn. Therefore, his qualifying average is .34565 (his actual average is .34640). If no other batter exceeds .34565, the Melkman cometh.
McCutchen seemed to be a sure bet to win all the marbles a while ago, when he was in the .370s, but he is currently below Melky and slumping.

The next two guys are quite a bit behind. Posey and Molina will get about 100 more at bats each, and either of them would need to hit in the .420s or better for the rest of the season if they want to pass Melky.

Kemp might manage a high enough average, but has only 319 plate appearances, and has no chance to come anywhere near 502.

The only other hope is Votto, perhaps the game's best hitter, who is currently in the .340s. Cincinnati has 34 games left to play and Votto now has 370 plate appearances. If Votto returns Monday and bats third, he will barely amass 502 by the end of the season, but that's a big "if." Nobody really knows when he'll start playing again, and nobody knows if he will be at full strength when he does.

The applicable rule, as explained by Wikipedia:

"From 1967 to the present, if the player with the highest average in a league fails to meet the minimum plate-appearance requirement, the remaining at-bats until qualification (e.g., 5 ABs, if the player finished the season with 497 plate appearances) are hypothetically considered hitless at-bats; if his recalculated batting average still tops the league, he is awarded the title. It's officially called Rule 10.22(a), but it's known as the Tony Gwynn rule because the Padres' legend took the batting crown in 1996 with a .353 average on just 498 plate appearances. He was four shy. The rule allowed that because Gwynn would have led the league even if he'd gone 0-for-4 in those missing plate appearances. His average would have dropped to .349, five points better than second-place Ellis Burks' .344."

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