Tuesday, February 09, 2016

New Hampshire primary results: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders win - Kasich second

New Hampshire primary results: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders win - Kasich second

The Republican exit polls show that Trump won every single demographic and ideological breakdown, but it's critical to note that half of New Hampshire voters are white people over 50 (more than half among Republicans, of course) so this result is not exactly a reflection of America's verdict on the candidates. Excluding Kasich, whose candidacy seems a bit, shall we say to be kind, "quixotic," Trump curb-stomped his nearest rivals. As I write this (80% counted), he has more votes than Cruz, Bush and Rubio added together as they battle in a three-way photo finish for third.

Poor Ben Carson got only 2%. I'm starting to feel empathy for that guy who, although clueless, seems like a decent human being. I wouldn't want him as President, but I'll bet he'd be great to have as an uncle or a friend, unless you get drowsy easily! (I guess you wouldn't want any President that you describe by starting your sentence with "Poor so-and-so.")




Hillary did win a few segments of the voting population. She (barely) won the non-white vote. While that is meaningless in New Hampshire, where non-whites form only 4% of the Republicans and 7% of the Democrats, it will come into play in later states.

She also won the elderly vote (65 and over). Bernie's message resonates with every generation but his own. The younger the voter, the more likely they are to like him. Once again, Bernie absolutely destroyed Mrs Clinton in the 18-29 age group, this time by a margin of 83-16 (pretty similar to Iowa).

Clinton also won among people with family incomes over $200,000 per year, but that's a pyrrhic victory because Bernie might even use that as a talking point against her.

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