The "Nowcast" answers this specific question: "Who would win if the election were held today?" The answer today: Hillary 53% likely, Trump 47%. On August 8th, it was Hillary by 96-4.
The "most likely" outcome in the electoral college is 273-264 (does not add to 538 because of rounding).
Trump is now leading in three key battleground states: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, and he is expected to hold his lead in all three.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - Nowcast
2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - Nowcast
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