College Football Playoff Rankings
The new one isn't out yet. I'll link to it when it's available, but the playoff picture already seems to be pretty clear.
If they run the table, it will be Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Alabama, and the winner of the Clemson-Miami game. The fact that Clemson and Miami have to face each other removes the problem of having to fit five teams into four slots.
Of course any of those teams could still fall. The eventual SEC champ (Alabama, Auburn or Georgia) and the Clemson/Miami winner seem to be locks, but the Big Ten could lose its slot if Wisconsin falls in the championship game, and the Big 12 could end up empty-handed if Oklahoma can't win the conference. If Alabama beats Auburn, then loses the conference championship in a close game to Georgia, the committee could easily decide to place the two SEC finalists in the playoffs, especially if Wisconsin and/or Oklahoma can't run the table.
Sagarin's ratings show pretty much the same thing. His system really likes Penn State, but the Nittany Lions are blocked. If Wisconsin wins the conference with an undefeated record, they will certainly be in. If Ohio State wins the conference, they may or may not be in, but they will have a better claim than Penn State, having won the head-to-head match and adding the conference championship.
Notre Dame does not seem to have a path to the finals, having lost to both Miami and Georgia, two teams likely to end up with equal or better records.
There is still the SEC conference championship game, which is between Georgia and the Alabama-Auburn winner. If Auburn beat Alabama but loses to Georgia in the rematch, then Georgia is in.
ReplyDeleteIf Auburn beat Georgia again in the rematch, then they are probably in, but with two losses, which means either Clemson or Miami would be very unhappy.
Similarly, the Big 12 brought back their championship game this year on Dec. 2nd, which will pit OU vs. (probably) TCU. A TCU win likely opens up a spot for a second SEC team.
There is even an outside possibility a top-four-rated conference champion gets shut out, due to the Alabama Factor.
ReplyDeleteLet's say Alabama loses a close game to Georgia in the SEC Championship. Let's also say that Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Miami (or Clemson) win theirs. There will definitely be some support for Alabama over either Oklahoma or Wisconsin (which, though undefeated, will have played a relatively weak schedule). It would be highly controversial, but it still could happen.