G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts - NYTimes.com

The G.O.P. Has a 2-in-3 Chance of Taking the House

Historically, the likelihood of the opposition party to gain seats in the mid-term elections varies greatly depending on the popularity of the President. When the president has had a Gallup approval rating of 59 or higher, the average loss has only been three seats; and when the president has been in the 49-58 range, the average loss has been 26 seats, but the opposition party has gained an average of 40 seats when the President's approval rating was below 49.

In every single case when the president's approval rating has been below 49, the opposition party has gained AT LEAST 28 seats. Obama's approval has ranged from 43 to 45 in the past month.

According to the statistical wizards at 538, the most likely scenario at the moment is for the GOP to gain 45 to 46 seats. They need 39 to take control.